内生与外生死亡分解下的中国成年人口的预期寿命——基于生命力模型的应用

The Intrinsic-Extrinsic Decomposition of the Adult Life Expectancy of China:An Application of the Vitality Model

文章利用生命力模型对我国成年人口(35岁及以上)分年龄别死亡率曲线进行拟合,据此将预期寿命分解为内生预期与外生损失寿命。通过对六普数据的应用,发现我国男性与女性成年人口预期寿命的差异主要来自于受即时环境影响的外生损失寿命。而城乡间的差异主要来自于由慢性衰老过程所主导的内生期望寿命。与日本的国别间比较进一步揭示,我国与寿命领先国家的主要差距在于内生过程。此外,五普与六普的纵向比较表明,外生死亡的减少是我国成年男性近10年来预期寿命变动的主要因素,而内生与外生死亡因素的改进在女性近10年寿命增长中的贡献趋于平衡。依据寿命领先国际的经验,我国未来预期寿命的增长将逐渐转变为以内生因素提高为主的模式。

ln this work, we utilize the vitality model to fit the age-specific mortality data of Chinese adult （35 ＋ ）, and decompose the adult life expectancy into the intrinsic life expectancy and the lost life expectancy due to extrinsic mortality. By applying the method to the Sixth Population Census data, we find that the gender difference in the Chinese adult life expectancy primarily stemmed from their difference in the lost life expectancy due to extrinsic mortality, while the difference between the urban and rural residents mainly reflected in their intrinsic life expectancies which were determined by the chronic aging process. The comparison with Japan further reveals that the disparity in the intrinsic life expectan- cy contributed mostly to the gap of these two countries in the adult life expectancy. Furthermore, the longitudinal comparison between the Fifth and the Sixth Census data suggests that the reduction of extrinsic mortality was the major force that enhanced the male life expectancy in the past ten years, while the decline of both intrinsic and extrinsic mortality characterized the change of the female life expectancy in the same period. According to the experience of countries with advanced life expectancy, the growth of the life expectancy in China will be dominated by the intrinsic increase.