清洁发展机制仿真交易的市场效果研究

Research on the Clean Development Mechanism Market Trading Results Based on Simulation

清洁发展机制(CDM)是当前应对全球气候变化的一种需要。文章应用基于主体的仿真技术(Agent-based Simulation),对CDM的市场主体进行了刻画,并借助NetLogo软件模拟CDM市场的交易过程。结果发现,在企业保持原有规模不变的条件下,随着交易的不断推进,发达国家节省的成本趋小并收敛于0附近,而发展中国家获得的收益有增长的趋势,但是增速逐渐放缓;在企业选择投建新厂的模式下,发展中国家的企业总规模有快速扩张的趋势,并会超过发达国家。这一模拟结果从经济学的角度解释了为何欧美国家对CDM交易持消极态度。未来如想使清洁发展机制健康稳定的持续下去,则需要改变当前的交易规则,而企业本身则需要审慎评估项目盈利前景。

For the development of low-carbon economy, CDM is necessary. The characteristics of Complex Adaptive Systems can reflect the complex interaction between the dynamic behaviors. After studying CDM, we find that it is a complex system, so CDM can be studied by the Complex Adaptive System theory. CDM transactions mechanism is designed based on the Complex Adaptive System theory and NetLogo software, through using EB and the World Bank data. Simulation re- sults show that CDM can provide much money in developing countries, but the cost savings will be less than ever before in developed countries. If the enterprises in developing countries fund new en- terprises or new plants, the number and size of enterprises will grow rapidly.