新能源汽车城市物流碳排放模型的构建与分析

Modeling and Analysis of the Carbon Emission of New Energy Vehicle in Urban Logistics Industry

研究了新能源汽车在物流行业应用的环境收益.首先考虑物流量与碳排放量的关系,构建了新能源汽车城市物流碳排放模型,然后基于改进的Gompertz模型预测了2020年我国三个核心城市:北京、上海和天津的货物周转量,在此基础上,分析了新能源汽车的碳减排能力,并测算了新能源汽车推广应用后的碳减排总量.结果表明,新能源汽车在物流行业应用具有一定的碳减排效果,并且随着新能源汽车技术的不断发展,碳减排效果将愈加显著.政府应构建适合新能源汽车的城市物流体系、加大新能源汽车在城市物流行业应用的支持力度、并遵循市场需求发展新能源汽车技术,以促进新能源汽车城市物流的发展.

The environmental benefit of New Energy Vehicle’s（NEV’s）application in the logistics in-dustry was studied.Firstly,this study established the carbon emission model of the urban logistics indus-try and predicted the cargo turnover of the three major cities of Beijing,Shanghai and Tianjin with the modified Gompertz model.Based on this,this paper analyzed the NEV’s ability of carbon emission reduc-tion,calculated the quantity of carbon emission reduction after the application of NEV.Then,we conclude that the NEV has the ability of carbon emission reduction.And more carbon emission will be reduced with the development of the NEV’s technique.Considering external economy of the logistics industry,the gov-ernment should construct an urban logistics system suitable for the NEV,intensify the support of the NEV in the urban logistics industry and follow the market demand of developing the NEV technology in order to promote the development of urban logistics of the NEV.