中国城镇化水平与就业增长、就业结构间关系的实证研究

The Empirical Study on the Relationship among the Level of Urbanization,Employment Growth and Employment Structure in China

本文基于1978-2013年时间序列数据,将中国城镇化水平、就业增长与就业结构作为系统中相互依存的内生变量构造动态模型,并分析随机扰动对变量的冲击。研究发现,中国城镇化水平、就业增长与就业结构三变量之间存在长期稳定的协整关系;城镇化对就业增长和就业结构都有正向影响,但就业增长对城镇化影响不显著,就业结构对城镇化后期影响较小;三者两两之间存在单向的格兰杰因果关系。这说明政府应该推进城乡公共服务业供给均等化、产业现代化、教育现代化的新型城镇化,以实现城镇就业增长和就业结构的协调与优化。

Based on the time series data from 1978 to 2013, the paper constructs a dynamic model in which China＇ s urbanization, employment growth and employment structure are interdependent endogenous variables, and analyzes the impact of the random distur- bance on the variables. The results show that there exists a long-term stable conintegration relationship among the level of urbaniza- tion, employment growth and employment structure. The urbanization has a positive influence on the employment growth and employ- ment structure, while the influence of the employment growth on the urbanization isn＇ t significant and the effect of the employment structure on the later urbanization is small. There exists one-way granger causality relationship between the two variables. It shows that the government should promote the new-type urbanization with the features of the equalization of urban and rural public service sup- ply, industrial modernization and educational modernization in order to realize the coordination and optimization of the urban employ- ment growth and employment structure.