运用不确定层次分析法和三角模糊数的多年冻土地区管道定量风险评价

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Pipelines in Permafrost Areas with Uncertain Analytic Hierarchy Process and Triangular Fuzzy Number

为了使多年冻土区管道在可控的风险范围内运行,为管道监测与维护重点提供科学指导,引入不确定层次分析法和三角模糊数用于穿越冻土区管道的定量风险评价。首先,充分考虑影响多年冻土区管道稳定的关键因素建立多层次指标评价体系;其次,利用不确定层次分析法,应用区间数确定权重,采用专家评分与三角模糊数相结合的方法,将基本事件模糊评价具体化,通过模糊数学相关运算求出单因素评价集;最后,通过多因素最优决策数学模型选择与数学处理求出管道运行的具体风险数值。

In order to make the permafrost areas pipelines within the scope of controllable risk and provide scientific guidance for pipelines monitoring and maintaining key, we introduced uncertain ana- lytic hierarchy process and triangular fuzzy number to do quantitative risk assessment of pipelines in permafrost areas. First, we built muti-level index evaluation system with fully considering the key facts that influence the stability of the permafrost areas. Secondly, we used uncertain analytic hierar- chy process and interval number to determine the weighting factor. By adopting the method of combi- ning expert evaluation and the triangular fuzzy number, we made the basic event fuzzy evaluation era-bodied and calculated the single factor fuzzy evaluation set by related fuzzy mathematics. Finally, by selection and mathematics treatment Of multi-factor and optimal decision mathematical model, we cal- culated the specific risk of pipeline operation value.