延迟预警对家庭网络早期传播行为的影响

The Impact of Delayed Awareness on Early Spreading Among Households

考虑全局干预和本地预警及其延迟实施对家庭网络早期传播行为的影响,从双层混合网络视角分析家庭网络模型,提出了一种家庭结构网络的病毒传播预警模型。通过马尔科夫链路径积分计算,并专注于预警措施延迟采纳导致的状态转移概率的差别,得到了早期传播动力学的相应数值指标。对全局预警与本地预警对系统早期动力行为的影响进行分析对比,发现在考虑接触次数情况下,本地预警对延迟的敏感性低于全局预警。

An epidemic model with awareness among households is proposed to explore the impact of delayed global intervention and local awareness on early epidemic dynamics with the two levels of mixing structure. A number of explicit results are derived by focusing on different transition rates induced by delayed awareness perception in path integral of Markov chains. The different influences of global awareness and local awareness on early dynamics are assessed by introducing delays between the initial infection and the deployment of awareness. We show that the local awareness is less sensitive to the delay than global awareness when the contact number is considered.