基于HBV模型确定沁河流域洪涝致灾临界雨量

Threshold of Precipitation for Qinhe River Basin Flood Based on HBV Model

对暴雨洪涝较为严重的沁河流域进行暴雨洪涝风险评估需要致灾临界雨量。运用半分布式水文模型HBV,选取以润城水文站为控制站的沁河流域1977—1988年逐日气象数据和水文数据,在率定和验证水文模型HBV的基础上,结合水位—流量关系,对沁河流域洪涝致灾临界雨量进行确定,并且运用1982年洪涝灾情的实测水文数据和降水量数据,验证致灾临界降水量的合理性。结果表明:沁河流域的三级致灾临界降水量是合理的,可作为判断该流域在不同前期水位条件下是否发生暴雨洪涝灾害的依据。

In impact assessment of floods in Qinhe Basin, with serious damages of these events, it is necessary to calculate the thresholds of precipitation. The conceptual semi-distributed hydrological model （HBV） was applied to define the threshold of precipitation （TP） for Qinhe River Basin flood, considering correlation between the water level and runoff. Daily temperature, precipitation and daily stream flow of 1977--1988 were used for calibration and verification of HBV model respectively. Taking Qinhe flood in 1982 as the example, the reasonable TP was validated based on the daily water level and flood disaster records. It was found that the third grade of TP was reasonable, which could be used to early warning for Qinhe River Basin flood.