陇东黄土高原地区可持续发展综合测度研究——以甘肃省庆阳市为例

Study on Comprehensive Measurement of Regional Sustainable Development in the Loess Plateau of East Gansu Province——A Case Study of Qingyang City

以2000—2012年数据为基础,构建包括人口、经济、社会、资源和环境五个子系统的可持续发展评价指标体系和综合评价模型,运用层次分析法(AHP)、主成分分析、回归分析和模糊隶属度等方法对庆阳市的可持续发展水平、持续度、协调度和趋势度进行测度分析。结果表明:(1)2000—2012年,庆阳市的可持续发展水平整体呈现持续上升的良好趋势,但人口、资源和环境子系统的可持续发展水平相对滞后;(2)可持续发展持续度总体呈现稳定的非减速特性,但可持续性能力不强;(3)各子系统间可持续发展协调度总体上是基本协调的,但部分系统间不协调的状况也比较明显,可见人口、资源、环境和经济社会发展的矛盾仍然较为突出;(4)可持续发展趋势度在整体上呈增长趋势,但有待于进一步提高发展质量。因此,庆阳市在今后的发展中,应稳步推进、统筹规划,促进人口、经济、社会、资源和环境各子系统的协调、持续发展。

Based on the actual situation of Qingyang City in the Loess Plateau of east Gansu Province, we built the comprehensive evaluation index system for regional sustainable development including population, economy, society, resources and environment subsystem, and introduced the comprehensive evaluation model to make a quantitative analysis on comprehensive appraisal of regional sustainable development. Based on the relative data from 2000 to 2012, the fluctuation of sustainable development status was quantitatively described using analytic hierarchy process, principal component analysis, regression analysis and fuzzy membership and four item indicators which were defined as the function of level indicator of sustainable development, sustainable degree, coordination degree and tendency degree. The results showed that： （1） from 2000 to 2012, the general level of sustainable development in Qingyang City was at the good state of increasing steadily, but the problems on resources, environment and population were serious; （2） the sustainable degree of sustainable development in Qingyang City generally presented the steady and sustainable state, but the sustainability was weak; （3） the coordination degree of sustainable development for the whole system was at the coordination phase or basic coordination phase, but the coordination of certain subsystems was at the incoordination phase, the conflict among subsystems was prominent; （4） the tendency degree of sustainable development for the whole system presented growth trend, but we still need to promote the development quality. So, in the future, it will be a long way to go for Qingyang City to realize the regional sustainable development, it should steadily advance and overall plan in order to promote the coordinated and sustainable development for the subsystems, including population, economy, society, resources and environment.