1957-2009年乌鲁木齐河径流与气候变化的对应关系

Corresponding Relationship Between the Runoff and Climate Change in the Upper Urumqi River Basin During the Period from 1957 to 2009

以1957—2009年乌鲁木齐河径流量、气温和降水量数据为基础,采用线性分析、Mann-Kendall检验方法、相关性分析和灰色关联度分析法等方法,研究乌鲁木齐河年径流量、气温和降水量的变化特征以及影响径流量的气象因子。结果表明:(1)50多年间乌鲁木齐河年径流量变化呈增加趋势,气温显著升高而降水量缓慢减少。从径流量的年际变化来看,乌鲁木齐河年径流量变化出现平水期(1957—1990年)、丰水期(1991—2000年)和平水期(2001—2009年),总体呈现波动增加趋势;从年内分配来看,乌鲁木齐河年径流量主要集中在夏季和秋季,而春季和冬季较少;从月分布来看,6月、7月、8月份径流量最大,其他月份较少。(2)Mann-Kendall检验表明,1957—2009年乌鲁木齐河年径流量、春季径流量和冬季径流量均显著上升,而夏季和秋季径流量上升趋势不显著。(3)相关性分析和灰色关联度分析表明,乌鲁木齐河年径流量变化主要受降水的影响。

We analyzed the annual and interannual variability of runoff discharge and the related influential factors in Urumqi River basin during the hydrological years from 1957 to 2009 using linear analysis, Mann-Kendall test, correlation and grey correlation analysis methods based on the annual runoff, temperature, and precipitation data from the hydrological station located at the river outlet. Results showed that. （1） annual runoff had the increasing trend during the study period, and the annual average temperature increased significantly while the annual precipitation decreased slightly; the runoff had relatively greater value and was sufficient during the period from 1991 to 2000, and had average value during the hydrological years from 1957 to 1990 and from 2001 to 2009; in terms of seasonal distribution, the runoff in Urumqi River basin mainly concentrated in summer and fall seasons while runoff was relatively small in winter and spring; the runoff was the greatest in June, July and August within a year; （2） Mann-Kendall analysis showed that the annual, spring and winter runoff had significant increasing trend while the increasing trend for runoff in summer and fall seasons was insignificant; （3） the correlation and gray correlation analysis showed that the increased runoff in Urumqi River basin was mainly caused by precipitation during the study period.