基于敏感度分析模型的云南粮食生产与耕地变化动态响应研究

Study on the Dynamic Response of the Grain Production and Cultivated Land Changes in Yunnan Province based on the Sensitivity Analysis Model

在对2000-2012年粮食产量数据与耕地面积数据进行动态分析的基础上，引入敏感度分析模型，对2000年以来云南粮食生产与耕地变化的动态关系进行定量评估，从而揭示粮食产量对耕地变化的敏感性特征。研究表明，2000-2003年粮食产量对耕地变化的敏感程度小于0，为不敏感状态；2004-2005年粮食产量对耕地变化的敏感程度为0.11，为低度敏感状态；2006-2012年粮食产量对耕地变化的敏感程度迅速增大到35.68，为高度敏感状态，说明2006年以来粮食产量对耕地变化的敏感度很高，耕地面积的较小变动会造成粮食产量的较大波动。因此，严格区域耕地保护，实行耕地“补占平衡”政策对于保证区域粮食安全具有重要意义。

By using sensitive degree analysis model, the quantitative evaluation was conducted on the dynamic relationship between food production and cropland changes since 2000 based on the dynamic analysis of data of cropland areas and food production in Yunnan Province between 2000 and 2012 , so as to reveal the sensitive features of food production on cropland changes.The result shows that：From 2000 to 2003, the sensitive degree of food production on cropland sensitivity is less than 0, appearing insensitive.From 2004 to 2005, the sensitive degree of food production on cropland sensitivity is 0.11, at the low sensitive stage.And from 2006 to 2012, the sensitive degree of food production on cropland sensitivity is 35.68, at the highly sensitive stage.These data indicate that the food production is highly sensitive to the cropland changes, even the small change of the cropland will cause the great volatility in food production.Therefore, it has the important meaning to the regional food security guarantee through the strict cropland protection and the implementation of cropland＂replenishment balance＂policy.