基于量化分析的中国股市资金流向优化研究

The Optimization of Money Flow in China's Stock Market Based on Quantitative Analysis

股市资金流向分析是股票投资技术分析的重要内容之一。传统资金流向统计方法在资金流界定、统计依据、统计口径方面存在局限性,基于此提出一种优化的资金流向统计方法,该方法引入趋势移动平均价格指标作为统计依据,优化的资金流向统计方法的优点在于考虑到不参与交易的股票对未来股票价格及资金流量的影响,这是与以往研究的不同之处。最后选取上证50及创业板成分股为实证研究对象,实证结果较好地验证了优化资金流向统计方法的合理性及适用性,趋势移动平均价格指标可作为投资者的重要参考因素,当趋势移动平均股价和当前股价严重偏离时可起到警示作用。

Money flow is an important part of stock investment analysis. Traditional statistical methods of money flow have some problems in the definition of cash flow and statistical basis. The paper puts forward an optimized statistical method of money flow, which introduces the mean price index of trend into traditional statistical methods. The advantage of optimized statistical method of money flow is that it takes into consideration the impact of the stock which is not involved in the transaction on future stock price and money flow, which is different from previous research. It makes an empirical study of the stocks of SSE 50 and GEM, and the results have well verified the rationality and adaptability of optimized statistical method of money flow. The mean price index of trend can be considered as an important factor of investment decision-making. When the mean stock price of trend is seriously deviated from the present stock price, the mean price index of trend has a forewarning function.