经济增长与三次产业从业人数的动态关系研究——以南京市为例

The Dynamic Relationship Between Economic Growth and Number of Employees of the Three Industries

基于南京市1981—2013年经济增长与三次产业从业人数的相关数据构建VAR模型,利用协整分析、脉冲响应函数和方差分解对南京市经济增长与三次产业从业人数的长期均衡关系与双向动态影响机制进行分析.研究发现:1南京市经济增长与三次产业从业人数之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,并且经济增长与第一、第三产业从业人数呈正相关,与第二产业从业人数呈负相关.2三次产业从业人数对经济增长都起推动效应,但贡献度均不是很大,且存在差异,依次为第三、第二、第一产业.3南京市经济增长对第二产业从业人数的变化产生的效果最显著,第三产业次之,第一产业最小,且南京市经济增长对三次产业从业人数产生变动的影响效果大于三次产业从业人数对经济增长的推动效应.

The VAR model was established based on the data of economic growth and number of employees of the three industries from 1981 to 2013 in Nanjing. The co-integration,impulse response function and variance decomposition were used to analyze the long-term equilibrium relationship and two-way dynamic mechanism between economic growth and number of employees of the three industries in Nanjing. The results showed that there exits long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth and number of employees of the three industries in Nanjing ,and economic growth was positively correlated with the number of practitioners in the first and tertiary industry ,while the number of employees in the secondary industry was negatively correlated with. Number of employees of the three industries all had driven effect on economic growth,but their contributions were not great and exist difference,in order, the tertiary,the second and the first industry. The impact of economic growth on the number of employees of the three industries had significant difference and the rank ordering from high to low was the secondary ,the tertiary and the first industry. Also,the impact of economic growth on the number of employees of the three industries was greater than the driven effect of the number of employees of the three industries on economic growth.