改进层次分析法的煤与瓦斯突出预测

Improved analytic hierarchy process for coal and gas outburst prediction

为准确预测煤与瓦斯突出的危险等级,采用三元标度分析法对传统的层次分析法进行改进,简化了对各影响因素进行权重分析的过程,运用模糊数学和隶属度函数的相关理论分析所得的权重向量,经过推导可以得出煤与瓦斯突出等级的综合分析结果,运用二级评判的方法对初级结果进行修正,实现对煤与瓦斯突出危险等级的精确预测.研究结果表明:相比于过去传统的层次分析法,这种改进的层次分析法可以更加快速准确地预测结果.

In order to predict the danger levels of the coal and gas outburst accurately, a ternary scale analysis was used to improve the traditional AHP which simplified the process to analysis the weights of each factors, then analysis the weight vector using the theory of fuzzy determination and membership function determination right resultant weight vector, and it can reach a result of a prediction to the outburst levels. In the end, a two comprehensive evaluation was measured to correct the results, which achieved a precise prediction of coal and gas outburst danger levels. The results show that the improved AHP can predict the outcomes more quickly and accurately compared to the traditional AHP.