2015年上半年玉米市场分析与展望

Maize Market in the First Half of 2015 and Its Outlook

在国内玉米市场进入阶段性供大于求的背景下,2015年上半年,国内玉米价格由于临储政策的托市作用,走势基本平稳,总体略有上升;全球玉米供求形势较为宽松,国际玉米价格持续下跌;国内外玉米价格差距不断拉大,中国玉米进口压力加大,进口量同比增加。展望后市,2015年国内玉米种植面积继续扩大,生产形势依然较好,库存消化压力较大,市场供应充足,下半年价格将稳中偏弱,新玉米上市后下行压力将加大;国外玉米将继续保持明显的价格优势,后期进口量仍将进一步增加。

In the first half of 2015, entering the oversupply periodicity, China＇s market price of maize was relatively stable and rose slightly due to the support of temporary purchasing and storage policy. The global maize was relatively oversupply, and the international market price continued falling, so the price gap between domestic and international market expanded, and China＇s maize imports increased under large import pressure. Looking forward to the future, the planting area of China＇s maize will continue increasing slightly and the production situation will be preferable in 2015. The pressure of high storage and adequate supply will cause domestic market price stable and somewhat weak in the second half of 2015, and the new maize will face the downward pressure after coming into the market. The price of foreign maize will keep obvious advantage and China＇s maize import may continue increasing in the future.