欧亚地震带大震预测(Ⅱ):板内地震区

A prospective prediction of major earthquakes for the Eurasian seismic belt(Ⅱ):Intraplate seismogenic zones

基于孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,对欧亚地震带划分了26个板内地震区.从孕育周期界定与主震事件判识角度,分析了这些地震区大(巨)震事件孕育过程,研判了其未来震情.结果表明:达卡与科什阿加赤地震区未来有巨震发生;托斯亚地震区未来有大震或巨震发生;于田、布哈拉、比尔詹德、加兹温-塞姆南、巴尔坎纳巴德-内沙布尔、大不里士、埃里温-盖贝莱、布加勒斯特北部、伊士麦、科林斯、杜布罗夫尼克与罗马地震区未来有大震发生;凯瑟利地震区未来有强震或大震发生;洛扎-林芝、普杰、比什凯克、费尔干纳、希比尔甘-杜尚别、拉什卡尔加、艾布西雷尔、开罗与巴塞罗那-巴伦西亚地震区未来有强震发生;伊斯坦布尔地震区当前孕育周期主震事件已发生,目前余震活动尚未结束,很可能发生MW7.3级左右余震.本文所得结论可供有关国家相关部门参考,以采取有效防震减灾措施.

In this study,we divided the Eurasian seismic belt into 26 intraplate seismogenic zones based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system.Moreover,we analyzed the seismogenic process of the major or great earthquake events in these zones based on the definition of seismogenic period and the recognition of the main shock event,and forecasted the future earthquake situation.The results showed that great earthquakes will occur in the seismic zones of Dacca and Kosh-Agach;a major or great earthquake will occur in the Tosya seismic zone;major earthquakes will occur in the seismic zones of Yutian,Bukhara,Birjand,Qazvin-Semnan,Balkanabat-Nishapur,Tabriz,Yerevan-Qabala,Northern Bucharest,Izmir,Korinthos,Dubrovnik and Rome;a strong or major earthquake will occur in the Kayseri seismic zone;strong earthquakes will occur in the seismic zones of Lhozhag-Nyingchi,Bhuj,Bishkek, Fergana, Sheberghan-Duschanbe, Lashkar Gah,Evciler,Cairo and Barcelona-Valencia.Actually,in the current seismogenic period of the Istanbul seismic zone,the main shock event has occurred,the aftershock activity is not yet over,and the MW7.3aftershock will very likely occur.Our results provided valuable prediction information for the relevant departments of relevant countries in the Eurasian seismic belt to take effective measures for earthquake damage reduction.