欠发达地区R&D要素、经济增长与能源消费协整关系分析——以新疆为例

A Co-Integration Analysis of the R & D Elements, Economy Growth and Energy Consumption in Less Developed Area——A Case of Xinjiang

选取1999—2013年样本区间内新疆能源消费、经济发展、R&D要素相关数据,利用协整检验、误差修正模型及Granger因果关系检验,对新疆能源消费量与GDP、R&D投入、R&D资本存量、R&D人员量在时序维度的长期均衡和短期动态性进行实证研究。结果表明,能源消费量与GDP、R&D投入量、R&D人员量之间存在长期的动态均衡关系,GDP、R&D投入量、R&D人员量是能源消费量的单向Granger原因,R&D资本存量与能源消费量间无长期均衡关系,印证了区域经济能源高消耗、R&D转化效率不足的现状。

This paper analyzed the energy consumption in Xinjiang and GDP, R ＆ D investment, R ＆D capital and R ＆ D personnel quantity by applying the Co-Integration Test, Error Correction Model and Granger Causality Test Method on the basis of relevant data of energy consumption, economic growth, and R＆D elements in Xinjiang from 1999 to 2013. The results showed that the energy consumption maintained a long-term dynamic equilibrium relation with GDP, R＆D investment and R＆D personnel quantity, and the GDP, R ＆ D inputs and R ＆ D personnel were of Granger cause of the energy consumption. R ＆ D capital, however, did not have a long-term equilibrium with energy consumption. This finding confirmed the status quo that the economic development was still relying mainly on the high consumption of energy whereas R＆D transformation was not satisfactory.