日光温室黄瓜低温冷害预警模型构建技术研究

Study on Forewarning Model Construction Technology of Chilling Injury for Cucumber in Greenhouse

利用数学统计方法对历史气象资料进行统计分析,并根据日光温室黄瓜低温冷害发生的气象因子等级指标,计算得到温室内最低气温、温室内地表温度、太阳总辐射、日照时数4个气象要素的等级指标;统计分析2007年至2012年淄博、莱芜日光温室小气候自动监测站和自动气象观测站的资料,利用结构方程模型确定低温预警模型中的因子,根据层次分析法构建判断矩阵,利用DPS分析因子权重系数,最终建立了日光温室黄瓜低温冷害预警模型。利用临淄、莱芜、利津、平度、章丘五站2012年11月1日至2013年5月31日的气象观测资料对该模型进行检验,结果表明预警等级与实际等级完全一致的准确率为63%~77%,相差在1个等级以内的准确率在97%~99%。

The statistical analysis on the historical meteorological date was conducted by mathematical statistical methods,and four grade index of meteorological factors of the lowest temperature,ground surface temperature,total solar irradiation and sunshine hours in greenhouse were calculated according the cucumber chilling injury grade index of temperature in facility.Analyzing the micro -climate data and meteorology data in Zibo and Laiwu of 2007 to 2012,using the structural equation modeling（SEM）to choose factors of forewar-ning model,constructing judgment matrix by analytic hierarchy process （AHP）and analyzing the factors weight coefficient by DPS,the chilling injury forewarning model of greenhouse was built finally.Using the data of Linzi,Laiwu,Lijin,Pingdu and Zhangqiu from November 1,2012 to May 31,2013 to verify the model,the result showed that the rate of forewarning grades and chilling injury happened grades were 63% ~77% in full agreement,and the rate of grades difference in 1 grade was 97% ~99%.