基于ELES模型的锡林浩特市牧户消费结构的实证分析

Empirical study on the consumption structure of herdsmen in Xilinhot

以2007-2010年锡林浩特实地调查89个牧户微观数据为基础,对牧户生产性消费建立ELES模型,从边际消费倾向、基本需求和需求收入弹性进行了实证分析。结果显示：牧户的消费支出仍有一定的增量空间;牧户以短期投资为主,长期投资不足,牧业生产成本投入大;对饲料、家畜和固定资产的消费意愿较高;雇佣服务和租用草场是牧户未来的消费热点,应大力发展。要扩大消费、转变牧户投资方向,在提高收入的同时,还要完善社保制度,推进消费信贷。从增加饲料多样性和稳定生产资料价格入手调整消费结构,增强消费意愿。

The empirical methods were used to analyze the marginal propensity of consumption,basic demand and income elasticity of demand by using the ELES,based on 89 herdsman households＇ micro data of Xilinhot of2007- 2010. The results show that the herdsman household consumption still had certain space increment; the herdsman household focused on short- term investment,was lack of long- term investment; the cost of animal husbandry was huge; the herdsman had a higher consumption willingness in feedstuff,livestock and fixed assets.Employment service and grassland rent would be the hot spots of consumption. In the same time,increase of revenue,social security system improvement and consumer credit promotion are necessary in order to expand consumption and change investment direction. Consumption structure should be adjusted,and consumer willingness should be enhanced by increasing feed diversity and stabilizing production material price.