牧民对极端气候风险的感知与适应对策实证研究——基于内蒙古锡林郭勒和呼伦贝尔牧户调查数据

Empirical study on the herders ' perception and adaptive strategies to the extreme weather risks in Inner Mongolia

我国牧区是自古以来容易遭受极端气候影响以及自然灾害频发的地区。过去,牧户主要采取敖特尔,即以游牧方式应对各种自然灾害。但是,由于家庭联产承包责任制的实施以及近年来牧区工业化、城镇化、信息化、现代化、集约化的推进,不断改变着广大牧民应对极端气候以及自然灾害的行为方式。文中利用内蒙古典型牧区225户牧户实地调查数据,采用比较分析方法和实证分析方法,分析了锡林郭勒和呼伦贝尔牧民对极端气候风险的感知,探究了牧民对极端气候风险的适应对策。近年来,牧民对干旱、旱灾的感知程度均在逐年下降,最大下降幅度为67.5%;对寒流、雪灾的感知程度均在逐年上升,最大上升幅度为80%;而对暴风的感知程度稳中略降,最大下降幅度为15%。不同区域牧民对同一年度和多年平均的极端气候感知程度存在差异,同一种极端气候在不同区域存在影响差异。牧民适应极端气候的对策本身虽大致相同,但存在区域差异。

Pastoral areas were vulnerable to extreme weather and frequent natural disasters since ancient times.In the past,herdsman mainly adopted aoteer namely by the nomadic way to deal with all kinds of natural disasters. However,the implementation of the household contract responsibility system and the advance of pastoral areas industrialization,urbanization,informatization,modernization,and concentration in recent years constantly changed the general practice of responding to extreme climate and natural disasters. This study used the data from field survey of 225 farmers in Xilingol and Hulunbuir of Inner Mongolia to Comparatively and empirically analyze the perception that response to extreme climate risks of herders,and explored the specific measures of Herdsmen＇s response to extreme climate risks. In recent years,the degree of herders＇ perception of drought was decreased; the maximum decrease of perception level was 58. 7%. The cold current and snow disaster were increased year by year; the maximum increase of perception level was 80%. Yet the storms were basically stable or slightly weakened,the maximum decrease of perception level was 15%. Different regions of the herdsmen＇ perceptions to the extreme weather were different on the same year and annual average; the same kind of extreme weather had different influences in different regions. Countermeasures of herdsmen adapted to extreme weather itself were roughly same,but there were regional differences.