1961-2011a中国夏季35度以上极端高温事件的变化特征分析

Variation characteristics of extreme high temperature event over 35℃ in China during 1961- 2011

文中采用Mann-Kendall检验、滑动t检验、小波分析方法对1961-2011年中国夏季35度以上极端高温事件的发生趋势、突变点、周期进行了分析。35度以上日最高温度平均值的分析结果表明:1961-2002年,该值呈现逐渐降低的趋势,2003-2011年呈现逐渐增高的趋势,突变点发生在2000年,普遍存在着2-3年的波动周期,1961-1980年存在着6-7年的波动周期,1980-2000年存在着12-13年的波动周期。35度以上日频数分析结果表明:从1961-2006年,该值呈现逐渐下降的趋势,2006-2011年,呈现逐渐上升的趋势,2004年为突变点,普遍存在2-3年的周期,1960-1970年存在5-6年的周期,1972-1992年存在7-8年左右的周期。

This research analyzed the trend,abrupt change and cycle of extreme high temperature event over35℃ in China during 1961- 2011 by applying Mann- Kendall method,sliding t- test and wavelet analysis.The analyzing result of equalizing value of daily maximum over 35℃ shows： this value emerged the trend of lowing gradually during 1961- 2003,emerged the trend of increasing gradually during 2003- 2011; the abrupt change of this value occurred in 2000; the major cycle was 2- 3 a,the secondary cycle was 6- 7a during 1961- 1980,another cycle was 12- 13 a during 1980- 2000. The analyzing result of the frequency of the day temperature over 35℃ shows： the value emerged the trend of lowing gradually during 1961- 2006,emerged the trend of increasing gradually during 2006- 2011; the abrupt change of this value occurred in 2004; the major cycle was 2- 3a,the secondary cycle was 5- 6a during 1960- 1970,another cycle was 7- 8a during 1972-1992.