山西省城市旅游发展潜力评价研究

The evaluation on the urban tourism development potential in Shanxi province

以山西省11个地级市作为研究的基本单元,从旅游市场需求潜力、旅游市场供给潜力、基础设施潜力保障力、生态环境潜力保障力、经济发展潜力支持力和科教创新潜力支持力六个维度构建出城市旅游发展潜力评价指标体系,综合运用变异系数法、单样本T检验等方法定量分析了各地级市的旅游发展潜力差异,然后分别根据各地级市旅游发展潜力的综合得分和六个维度得分将其划归四个级别,以明确各地级市拓展旅游发展空间的工作重点。结果显示:各地级市旅游发展潜力的综合得分及五个维度得分存在显著差异;处于潜力强区的仅有太原,处于潜力较强区的有晋中、运城,处于潜力较弱区的有长治、晋城、大同、吕梁、临汾、朔州,处于潜力弱区的有阳泉和忻州;各地级市旅游发展的优势和劣势存在较大差异,今后的工作重点也各不相同。

Taking each city of Shanxi province as the basic research unit,the evaluation index system of urban tourism development potential was built up from six dimensions： the potential of tourism market demand,the potential of tourism market supply,the security of infrastructure potential,the security of ecological environment potential,the support of economy development potential,the support of science and education innovation potential. Using the variation coefficient method,the single sample t- test method etc.,we quantitatively analyzed the disparities of tourism development potential among cities in Shanxi province,then classified cities in Shanxi province to four levels respectively according to their composite scores and six dimensions scores of tourism development potential,in order to definite the focuses in expanding tourism development space. The results show that there were significant differences among the composite scores and five dimensions scores of urban tourism development potential; only Taiyuan was in the area of strong potential,Jinzhong and Yuncheng were in the area of less strong potential,Changzhi,Jincheng,Datong,Lvliang,Linfen and Shuozhou were in the area of less weak,Yangquan and Xinzhou were in the area of weak. There were great disparities existing in the advantage and disadvantage about tourism development among cities,so the focuses in the future are not identical.