间歇性新能源发电相关性分析

An Analysis of the Correlation of Intermittent New Energy Power Generation

近年来新能源发电技术得到不断发展,风力、光伏发电作为新能源发电的主要类型,受自然条件的影响具有很强的随机性与相关性。故对新能源发电的相关性进行了研究,提出应用经验分布函数描述风力与光伏出力的随机性;应用Copula函数描述其相关性。通过算例证明了所研究的光伏电站与光伏电站出力满足Gumbel-Copula分布,具有较强的上厚尾特性;风电场与光伏电站出力满足Frank-Copula分布,呈现对称相依性;风电场与风电场满足正态-Copula分布,无厚尾特性,且距离较近的两风电场具有较大的相关系数,随着距离的增加,其相关系数也逐渐减小,相关性逐步减弱。

Recent years have witnessed continuous development of new energy power generation. Wind and photovoltaic power generation, as main new energy generation methods, is highly stochastic and correlated due to influence from natural conditions. This paper studies the correlations of new energy power generation, proposes description of the randomness of wind and photovoltaic output through empirical distribution function, and describes the correlation by using copula function. By diffsets, it proves that the outputs of the photovoltaic power station and its output meet the requirement of Gumbel-Copula distribution and have an upper heavy tail; the outputs of the wind farm and photovohaic power station meet the requirement for Frank-Copula distribution and display symmetric dependency; the wind farms meets the requirement of Normal-Copula distribution and show no heavy tail. Furthermore, two wind farms located at a shorter distance have a larger correlation coefficient, and when the distance increases, the correlation coefficient decreases and the correlation weakens.