基于改进的GM(1,1)模型的配网无功短期预测研究

Research on Short-term Distribution Network Reactive Power Forecast Based on Improved GM( 1,1) Model

针对配电网中无功数据的预测问题做了研究,选取了合适的GM(1,1)预测模型,并采用了α参数修正、残差修正等方法对传统规模性进行了改进。通过一系列的算例分析,证明了改进后的模型有效的提高了预测的准确度,并具有一定的实用价值。

Aiming at the forecast of reactive power in the power distribution network, this paper selects an appropriate GM （ 1,1 ） model, and adopts a parameter modification and residual correction to improve the traditional scale. A series of numerical examples prove that the improved model raises prediction accuracy effectively and is of practical value.