临汾市近60年来气候变化特征分析

Analysis of Characteristics of Climate Change over Last 60 Years in Linfen

本文对临汾市气象观测站1954年~2013年的气温和降水资料,利用回归分析、小波分析、趋势分析法分析了临汾市近60年来的气候变化特征.分析结果表明:(1)近60年来,临汾年平均气温变化于10.98℃~15.18℃.临汾市年平均气温总体呈现出增长的趋势,线性倾向率为0.358℃/10 a,高于我国平均气温增长率,说明临汾市增温幅度较大,尤其是近30年来增温速率更为明显.2005年后年平均气温略呈下降的趋势.年内气温变化存在较为明显的季节差异,各季气温均呈增长趋势,夏季增温率最小,春秋两季要略大一些,冬季增温最为明显;(2)近60年来,临汾市总降水量在277.9 mm^798.6 mm之间波动,并表现出明显的降低趋势,线性倾向率约为-19.564 mm/10 a,气候变干较为明显.年内降水量变化存在明显的季节差异,春、夏、秋三个季节降水量均表现出降低的趋势.降低幅度从大到小依次是夏季、秋季和春季.其中夏季降水量减少是临汾市变干的主要原因,而冬季降水则表现出缓慢的增长趋势;(3)近60年,临汾市降水量表现出4 a^5 a和2 a的周期特征,而温度周期信号不明显.

According to the data of temperature and precipitation in the range of 1954 ~ 2013 from the meteorological observatory in Linfen,we analyze feature of climate changes in the recent 60 years in Linfen by the regression analysis and trend analysis. The results show that（ 1） in the past 60 years,the change of average annual temperature is in 10. 98 ℃ - 15. 8 ℃. The annual average temperature shows an overall growth trend,and the increasing rate was 0. 358 ℃ /10 a,this is higher than that of our country＇s average growth rate,which shows the increasing range in Linfen is larger,and especially in the recent 30 years,the rate of warming is more obvious.In 2005,the annual average temperature presents a slight downtrend. There are obvious differences of the seasonal temperature changes within the year,and the seasonal temperature takes on an increasing trend,which shows that in summer the increasing rate is minimum; slightly large in spring and autumn,the most obvious in winter.（ 2） Over the past 60 years,the total precipitation is in the range of 277. 9 mm ~ 798. 6 mm,and represents evident decreasing trend,and the decreasing rate is about- 19. 564 mm /10 a,which shows the climate is gradually becoming dry. There are clear seasonal differences in precipitation change,and in spring,summer and autumn,the precipitation shows a decreasing trend,and the decreasing amplitude is that summer is the largest and spring is the smallest. The main reason of the dry climate is reduction of precipitation in summer,but in the meantime,the precipitation in winter appears a slow growing trend.（ 3） In the last 60 years,the precipitation is characterized by the periodic features 2 a and 4 a ~ 5 a,while the temperature cycle signal is not significant.