环境治理约束下的中国能源结构转变--基于煤炭和二氧化碳峰值的分析

Transformation of China's Energy Structure under Environmental Governance Constraints:A Peak Value Analysis of Coal and Carbon Dioxide

在环境治理约柬下,中国能源结构转变及其对煤炭消费和二氧化碳排放的影响,是目前亟待研究的重大课题。基于环境治理倒逼能源结构变化这一事实,构建一个包含环境治理的中国能源综合预测框架,并考虑到能源供应约束和政策目标约束的影响,对中国环境治理背景下煤炭需求以及二氧化碳排放的预测结果表明:以环境治理为目标引致的能源结构转变,可以对煤炭消费和二氧化碳排放起到显著的抑制作用,煤炭和二氧化碳峰值提早出现将成为自然过程,而不会明显抑制经济发展。

Under environmental governance constraints,changes in China's energy structure and their effect on coal consumption and carbon dioxide emissions are currently important issues urgently requiring research.Based on the fact that environmental governance has a reverse transmission effect on changes in energy structure,we constructed a comprehensive forecasting framework for Chinese energy encompassing environmental governance.Energy supply constraints and constraints imposed by policy objectives are also taken into account.Against the background of Chinese environmental governance,forecasts for coal demand and carbon dioxide emissions show that the transformation of energy structure arising from the goal of environmental governance can act as a marked check on coal consumption and carbon dioxide emissions without significantly constraining economic development.It will become natural for the peak values for coal and carbon dioxide emissions to occur ahead of time.