总贸易核算法:官方贸易统计与全球价值链的度量

Gross Trade Accounting Method:Official Trade Statistics and Measurement of the Global Value Chain

全球价值链革命造成中间品贸易在国际贸易中的迅猛增长,使传统的贸易总量统计严重误导对世界贸易格局的理解。将库普曼等提出的一国总贸易流分解法扩展到部门、双边和双边部门层面的研究,把各层面的国际贸易流都分解为增加值出口、返回的国内增加值、国外增加值和纯重复计算的中间品贸易等组成部分,并根据贸易品的价值来源、最终吸收地和吸收渠道的不同,区分为16种不同路径,从而在传统国际贸易统计与国民经济核算体系之间建立了一个系统性的对应框架。这一新的核算体系揭示了国际贸易研究中广泛使用的指标,如贸易平衡、垂直专业化、增加值出口和显性比较优势等在方法上的局限,进而对这些指标做了重新诠释。

The revolution in the global value chain has resulted in the rapid growth of international trade in intermediate goods,making traditional statistics on total trade volume seriously misleading for our understanding of the pattern of world trade.This article extends the method of decomposing a country's gross trade flows put forward by Robert Koopman and others to research at the sectoral,bilateral and bilateral sectoral levels,decomposing international trade flows at all levels into value-added exports,returning domestic value-added,foreign value-added and purely doublecounted trade in intermediate goods,etc.These are divided into sixteen pathways depending on tradable goods' value source,territory of final absorption and absorption channels.In doing so,we build up a systematic framework of correspondence between traditional international trade statistics and the system of national accounts.This new accounting system reveals the methodological limitations of some widely used indicators in international trade research,including the balance of trade,vertical specialization,value-added exports,revealed comparative advantages,etc.We then re-interpret these indicators.