基于流动GPS测量的南天山及邻区地壳形变与地震活动

RESEARCH ON CHARACTERISTICS OF CRUSTAL DEFORMATION IN SOUTHERN TIANSHAN AND ITS ADJACENT REGION BASED ON GPS DATA

通过分析2010~2014年间4期新疆南天山及邻区流动GPS观测资料,发现喀什乌恰交汇区始终处于高剪应变值状态,但剪应变变化率不大,而巴楚至阿克苏一带,剪应变量值虽然不大,但相邻两年间的变化速率较快。研究表明,喀什乌恰交汇区存在发生7级左右地震的背景,但仍处于应变积累阶段,短期内发震可能性较小;巴楚附近应变能积累水平较高,变化率亦很大,因此近期发震的可能性较大,震级水平应该在6级以上。

According to mobile GPS data in southern Tianshan and its adjacent regions from 2010 to 2014, this paper found out that shear strain value in intersection of southern Tianshan and Kunlun- shan remained in high state, but quite normal in change rate. From Bachu to Akesu, shear strain value did not change a lot, but its change rate was quite fast within two years. Therefore, author held that intersection had potential of with Ms7, but it was still in stage of strain accumulating and earthquake would not occur soon. Both accumulating strain and energy level around Bachu was high, and also the change rate. For all evidences collecting, earthquakes would erupt recently prob- ably, and magnitude level would be above Ms6.