中国出口产品比较优势动态变化实证分析及预测

Empirical Analysis and Prediction on the Change of Comparative Advantage in Chinese Exports

本文通过计算显示性对称比较优势指数对我国1990~2014年间出口产品结构和显示性比较优势进行了实证分析,并通过国家出口比较优势指数分析我国出口产品的国家比较优势情况。在已有数据的基础上,结合通过自回归移动平均模型的预测数据,对我国2015~2020年各类出口产品的贸易前景分别进行了预测分析。

This thesis uses the revealed comparative advantage index to carry on the empirical analysis to our country export product structure during 1980 - 2014. And through CRSCA index analysis the change of comparative advantage in Chinese exports. Based on the existing data, and combining the predicted data of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model, the thesis gives a prediction about all kinds of our country export product during 2015 - 2020.