基于经济周期视角及灰色理论的我国碳排放强度影响因素分析

Study on the Influencing Factors of Carbon Emission Intensity Based on the Business Cycle And the Grey Theory

为了实现降低碳排放强度之目的,需要定量分析碳排放强度的影响因素。为此,本文从能源强度、能源结构、产业结构、经济发展水平各角度出发,选取了11个可能影响碳排放强度的因素。首先利用HP滤波对我国1978~2013年进行经济周期划分,基于1978~2013年不同周期的历史数据,利用灰色关联模型计算了我国不同经济周期内碳排放强度和各影响因素的综合关联度。根据GM（1,1）模型预测所得的2014~2020年的数据,计算并分析了我国碳排放强度和各影响因素综合关联度的发展变化。在总结分析不同时期碳排放强度主要影响因素的基础之上,提出了降低碳排放强度的政策建议。

In order to realize the purpose of reducing carbon emission intensity, we need to analyze the influencing factors of it. This paper is from the perspective of the energy intensity, energy structure, industrial structure and economic development level, selected 11 possible influencing factors of carbon emission intensity. At first, the HP filter is used to divide the economic cycle of 1978 - 2013. According to the data from 1978 to 2013, this paper calculates the integrated incidence degree of the carbon emission intensity and the in- fluencing factors in different business cycles, as also the period from 2014 to 2020 by using the grey correlation model. According the pre- diction data of 2014 to 2020 based on GM（ 1,1）model, development and changes of the integrated incidence degree of the carbon emission intensity and the influencing factors are calculated and analyzed. In the analysis of influencing factors of carbon emission intensity in differ- ent periods, the pehcy suggestions of reducing the carbon emission intensity are put forward.