增值税扩围对工业税负的影响——基于行业数据的分析

The effect on industrial tax burden of VAT expansion circumference——An analysis based on industrial data

用2009年到2014年工业行业数据,对增值税扩围后工业税负变化进行了实证检验。结果表明:增值税扩围后工业增值税负降低,主要是工业毛利率下降引发的,而不是增值税扩围政策。对这一结果做了分析解释,并提出深化增值税改革和促进工业发展的对策建议:一是加快营改增改革步伐;二是从降低工业企业税负角度考虑营改增相关政策;三是加强工业企业营改增后的税务应对管理;四是对工业企业效益下降的趋势高度关注。

The empirical test based on the data within the main industry areas from 2009 to 2014 showed that the decrease of industrial VAT tax burden after VAT expansion circumference is mainly caused by the decrease of industrial ratio of margin,instead of the VAT expansion circumference.Possible explanations for this result are given and suggestions are proposed：The government should increase the pace of transaction tax into VAT,and the transaction tax into VAT policy needs to be considered from the point of view of reducing industrial tax burden,etc.