贵州省近60年旱灾损失非一致性频率分析

Drought losses for nearly 60 years in Guizhou based on non-uniform frequency analysis

近几年贵州旱灾频繁发生,为准确研究贵州旱灾损失情况,文中依据变化环境下非一致性水文分析方法的原理,提出了基于趋势分析的非一致性旱灾损失频率分析方法。利用该方法对贵州1950-2011年的旱灾损失资料进行趋势分析,从频率曲线变化表明：频率低的极端旱灾成灾率呈现降低趋势,频率高的旱灾成灾率呈现增加趋势。为研究结果的合理性,利用Mann-Kendall非参数秩次检验和线性回归方程法对旱灾损失成灾率和影响旱灾损失的降雨进行相关分析,结果表明：在研究序列内,降雨的突变特征和旱灾损失成灾率的突变特征总体上一致,旱灾损失成灾率和降雨呈现负相关关系。

In recent years,drought occurred frequently in Guizhou. In order to study drought losses in Guizhou accurately,we presented non- uniform frequency analysis of drought losses based on the principle of non- uniform hydrologic analysis under varying environments to analyze the drought losses data from 1950 to 2011 of Guizhou. The frequency curve showed that the low frequency of extreme drought disaster rate showed a decreasing trend,the high frequency of drought disaster rate showed an increasing trend. To study the rationality of the results,we used non- parametric Mann- Kendall rank test and linear regression equation method to analyze the correlation of the rainfall and drought disaster rate. The results showed that the mutation characteristics of the rainfall was about the same as that of the drought disaster rate,the rainfall was negatively related to drought disaster rate.