固定投资对物价波动的非线性效应研究——基于增长率“门限”和产业投资结构的视角

A Study of Fixed Investment's Nonlinear Effects on Price Fluctuations from the Perspective of Growth Threshold and Industrial Investment Structure

中国告别高速增长,步入中速增长、结构调整的"新常态"。新形势下怎样平衡增长、物价稳定和投资结构之间的关系,仍然是中国宏观经济调控面临的核心问题之一。我们基于1978-2013年的省级面板数据,讨论了物价稳定、投资与经济增长的非线性关系。借助动态面板数据门限回归模型确定了投资对物价波动的容忍区间[7.45%,8.39%],即维持经济平稳增长和防止通货膨胀与通缩之间存在增长率门限,当经济增长率高于8.39%,投资会带来较大的通胀压力;当经济增长率低于7.45%,投资需求不足会带来通货紧缩风险。进一步考察不同产业投资类型差别效应,发现不同经济区制下产业投资结构对通货膨胀影响差异明显,房地产、制造业投资过剩和货币因素是导致物价的主要因素。优化投资结构、控制流动性过剩才是维持通胀稳定的重要措施。

Departing from high growth, China stepped into a “New Normal” state of medium economic growth and industrial restructuring. How to balance economic growth, inflation, and the investment structure has been one of the core issues in China＇ s macroeconomic regulation and control. Based on the provincial panel data from 1978 to 2013, this paper intends to explore the nonlinear relationship among investment, inflation and economic growth. By using the dynamic threshold panel data regression model, we find the investment inflation tolerance range [7.45%, 7.45%], which means there is a growth rate threshold in the maintenance of economic growth and the prevention of inflation or defla- tion. When economic growth rate is higher than 8.39%, further investment will bring about inflation; when the growth rate is lower than 7.45%, inadequate investment will lead to deflation. We also find that different types of industrial in- vestment will have different impacts on inflation. For example, excessive investment and capital in real estate and manu- facturing industry are the major causes of price fluctuation. To optimize the investment structure and control excessive li- quidity are important measures to stabilize inflation.