消费升级视野的需求结构再平衡

Demand Structure Based on the Perspective of Consumption Upgrading

需求结构失衡是当前我国面临的突出问题,消费升级是再平衡需求结构的有效路径。本研究界定了消费升级的概念,探究了需求结构变动与失衡的相关理论,通过实证分析得出结论：我国在1979-1996年存在较为明显的总需求与总供给失衡,在1997年后我国总需求与总供给已经处于均衡状态,但需求结构失衡程度却加深,投资过度,消费不足问题严重。基于以上分析,这里认为从需求面分析,促进消费升级的基础是增加消费,而增加消费的关键在于增加居民可支配收入;从供给面分析,消费升级还需要消费品升级的支撑。因而,依靠消费升级再平衡我国需求结构涉及利率市场化、土地制度改革、社保制度改革以及城乡消费互动、大规模定制等诸多改革。

The imbalance of demand structure is the crucial problems that China is facing, consumption upgrade is the effective path to rebalancing demand structure. This article defines the concept of consumption upgrade, explores the relative theories of structure changes and demand imbalance, and we get the following results through empirical analysis： The imbalance between aggregate demand and aggregate supply is obvious from the year 1979 to 1996, while after 1997, though our total demand and the total supply has already been in equilibrium, the degree of demand structural imbalance is deepening, and the problems such as overinvestment, under-consumption is more serious. Based on the above analysis, we believe that the foundation to promote consumption upgrade is to increase consumption from perspective of the demand, while the key to increase the consumption is to increase the disposable income; From the perspective of supply, to upgrade the consumption of goods is the support of consumption upgrade. Thus, relying on consumption upgrade to rebalance the demand structure, our government needs some reforms such as interest rate liberalization, land reform, reform of the social security system and the consumption of urban and rural interaction, mass customization, and so on.