技术进步、金融发展与经济增长效应综合评价分析

The Comprehensive Analysis on Financial Development,Technological Progress and Economic Growth

根据我国1995-2012年间技术进步、金融发展与经济增长的相关统计数据,采用静态分析和动态模拟的方法进行综合分析。研究结果发现,从长期来看,技术进步对经济增长具有显著的正向效应;金融发展与经济增长呈相互促进关系;从短期来看,技术进步对经济增长的脉冲响应是先负向后正向,存在"滞后效应",金融发展是经济增长的格兰杰原因;技术进步与金融发展之间的影响不明显。

With the static analysis and dynamic analysis on the relative statistic data of technological progress, financial development and economic growth between 1995 and 2012, we can see that in the long run, technological progress has sig- nificant positive effect on economic growth; The financial development and economic growth have interactive promotion ; In the short term, the pulse response of technological advances to economic growth is negative first and positive later, which is ＂the lag effect＂ ; The financial development is the Granger cause of economic, growth; Technological progress and financial development effect are not obviously correlated.