基于航班离港时刻主导的单航班离港旅客聚集模型

Arrived Passenger Model in Single Flight Based on the Time of Departure

通过对单航班离港旅客在航站楼聚集行为的动力学分析,证明了旅客的到达聚集行为在群体层面受截止时间影响服从重尾分布,并且存在混合分布特性;揭示了航班截止时间的变化对旅客行为重尾特性的影响规律。在此基础之上基于对数正态分布与回归分析建立了航班离港时刻主导的单航班离港旅客聚集模型,并通过仿真验证证明了模型拟合度达到80%以上,具有工程推广价值。

The arrival aggregation behavior of a single flight departing passengers at the group level affected by the deadline is proved to obey heavy-tailed distribution with mixed distribution characteristics through the dynamics analysis about the passengers＇ behavior at Terminal. The influence of the changes of flight deadline on the heavy tail characteristics of passengers＇ behavior is studied. On this basis, the arrived passenger model in single flight based on the time of departure（TD-SFAPM） is built, on account of the log-normal distribution and the regression analysis. The accuracy of the model is proved to be more than 80 percent by simulation.