食品价格变动对城乡居民消费行为的影响——基于2012年中国社会核算矩阵分析

The Impacts of Food Price Changes on Food Consumption of Urban and Rural Households——China's Social Accounting Matrix in 2012

本文基于SAM乘数理论,利用最新的中国2012年社会核算矩阵,分析食品价格变动对城乡居民消费行为的影响程度及具体传导路径。乘数分析可知:食品价格上涨,对城镇居民来说,将带动城镇居民中最低收入分组家庭的CPI上升;路径分析可知:食品价格变动通过多条路径影响城乡居民的CPI,最终导致城乡居民生活成本的变化,从而影响城乡居民的消费行为及消费结构。鉴于食品价格变动对城乡居民不同收入分组的影响程度不同,故政府应加强对食品价格的政策制定力度,充分考虑不同收入分组的消费能力,注重食品安全监测体系建设,保证居民安全消费,健康消费。

On the basis of SAM multiplier theory, this article employs the latest China＇ s social accounting matrix in 2012 to analyze the effect degree of food price changes on the consumption behavior of urban and rural residents and its specific conduction route. According to the multiplier analysis, driven by the rising food price, the CPI of lowest- income residents among urban dwellers will rise for urban residents. The route analysis reveals that the CPI of urban and rural residents is affected by food price changes through many routes, finally leading to the change of living cost for urban and rural residents. So their consumption behavior and structure will be affected. Food price changes have different effects on different urban and rural resident groups of various incomes. Therefore, the government should strengthen food price policy, take into full account the consumption ability of different groups and focus on the development of food safety monitoring system to ensure that residents can consume in a safe and healthy way.