土地整治项目社会经济影响的系统动力学分析——方法与实证

System Dynamics Analysis for the Socio-economic Impacts of Land Consolidation: Methodology and Empirical Study

研究目的:系统分析土地整治项目对整治区域的社会经济影响。研究方法:从资金投入产出子系统、农业生产子系统、土地利用子系统和社会影响子系统入手,构建了土地整治项目社会经济影响的系统动力学模型,选取湖南省长沙县典型项目进行了案例分析。研究结果:土地整治项目实施增加了农民收入、提升了区域经济发展,加速了农村劳动力结构调整并且一定程度上减少了社会冲突。研究结论:土地整治项目在拉动区域国民经济和维持区域社会稳定方面具有积极的影响,系统动力学方法可以有效反映这些社会经济影响的系统性、复杂性、反馈性、长期性和动态性的特征,并为土地整治政策调控、宏观决策和空间规划提供理论参考和借鉴。

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the socio-economic impacts of land consolidation on the project area. Methods and steps employed include 1 ）building system dynamics mode which contains causal-loop diagram, and 2）conducting a simulation experiment of a typical project in Hunan province. The result indicates that the project increases farmers＇ income, improves regional economic development, accelerates the structure of rural labor and decreases social conflict in some degree. It is concluded that 1 ）land consolidation project has positive effect on regional economy and social stability, 2）it is easy to sort out the relationship and transmission mechanism and clearly simulate the dynamic process of socio- economic impacts of land consolidation by using system dynamics, and 3）system dynamics provides a theoretical reference for pohcy control, macroeconomic policy-making and spatial planning of land consolidation.