东盟国家经济周期同步性分析

An Analysis of Business Cycle Synchronization in ASEAN Countries

经济周期是否具有同步性是区域经济合作参与国制定共同经济政策、促进区域合作纵深发展的前提。本文通过建立多变量向量误差修正模型,并依据共同趋势与共同周期理论,对东盟主要国家的经济周期同步性进行了分析,结果表明东盟主要国家不仅在长期的经济波动方面具有共同随机发展趋势,而且其短期经济周期也是完全同步的。然而,由于经济发展战略趋同以及相对较小的经济规模,东盟各国之间的竞争性大于互补性。因此,东盟各国必须在加强内部经济联系与政策协调的同时,积极寻求与外部经济体特别是中、日、韩等东亚主要经济体的合作,从而推动东盟国家经济一体化的进程。

Whether the economic cycle is synchronized is the premise for the regional economic cooperation countries to formulate common economic policies and promote the regional cooperation towards the development in depth and breadth. By establishing vector error correction model and applying the theory of common trends and common cycles, the paper empirically analyzes the typical five ASEAN countries in terms of the business cycle synchronization. The empirical re- suits show that the typical five ASEAN countries＇ outputs are co -integrated in the long run and the business cycle of typ- ical five ASEAN countries is perfectly and totally synchronous in the short run. However, the convergence of economic development strategy and the relatively small scale of economy make the competition between ASEAN countries greater than complement. So the ASEAN countries must strengthen internal countries economic ties and policy coordination; at the same time, they should seek to cooperate with the external economies, especially with China, Japan, South Korea and other Asian economies so as to promote the process of economic integration in ASEAN countries more quickly.