公共支出结构与房价走势:基于经济分权背景的分析

Public Expenditure Structure and Housings Price Trend: An Analysis based on Economic Decentralization

基于扩展的动态资本市场模型,本文运用2002-2012年我国30个省市区的数据探讨公共支出结构对住宅价格的影响。研究发现:不同地区的公共支出结构对住宅价格的影响程度存在显著区域性差异;公共支出结构对住宅价格的影响为正向显著的0.051,表明公共支出结构系数平均每提高1个单位,住宅价格相应上涨5.1%;公共支出结构系数平方项的系数为-0.001,意味着公共支出结构与住宅价格之间保持倒U型关系;当支出比重不超过特定值时,公共支出结构与住宅价格之间保持同向变动关系,两者超过特定值时会保持负向关系。

Based on the extended dynamic capital market model, this paper uses data of 30 provinces from 2002 to 2012 to investigate the effects of the public expenditure structure on housing prices. This study finds that the impact of the public expenditure structure on housing prices is significant in different regions; the impact of public expenditure structure of housing prices is positive significant 0. 051, indicating that the Structure of public spending increases a coefficient per unit, housing prices will rise 5. 1% ; the coefficient squared term of public expenditure structure is -0. 001, which means the relationship between public spending structure with housing prices remain inverted U - shaped; when the proportion of the expenditure does not exceed a certain value, public expenditure structure and housing prices maintain the same relationship, once it exceeds a certain value, they will maintain negative relationship.