基于概率分布的定量风险评估法在HACCP体系中的应用

Application of Quantitative Risk Assessment in HACCP Based on Probability Distribution

为了更有效地建立、执行HACCP体系,以中国南方地区葡萄生产过程为例,采用β分布与三角形分布相结合建立定量风险评估模型,对HACCP体系中的危害分析阶段进行风险等级评估。结果表明:在5%,50%和95%概率分布区间内,储藏阶段的生物性危害风险最高,其值分别为3.71×10-1,4.51×10-1和5.32×10-1;包装阶段的化学性危害风险最小,其值分别为0.03×10-2,0.38×10-2和1.64×10-2。基于概率分布的风险评估方法为HACCP的定量风险评估提供了新思路,有助于提高HACCP在从农田到餐桌的食品安全管理中应用的有效性。

In order to establish and implement HACCP system effectively, the production process of grape in South area was used as an example. Beta distribution and triangular distribution model were used to calculate the risk probability in the hazard analysis stage of HACCP system. The results showed that in 5%, 50% and 95% probability distribution range, the risk probability of biological hazard in the storage steps were the highest, whose values were 3.71 × 10-1, 4.51× 10-1 and 5.32× 10-1, respectively. On the contrary, the risk probability of chemical hazard in the packaging steps was the lowest, whose values were 0.03× 10-2, 0.38× 10-2 and 1.64×10-2, respectively. The risk assessment method based on probability distribution improved the effectiveness of food safety from farm to table in the application of management and provided a new way for quantitative risk assessment of HACCP.