中国经济的欧洲化--统一货币区、央地关系和地方政府债务

The Eurozonization of Chinese Economy—— Common Currency Area, Central-local Relations and Local Government Debt

中国当前正处于理顺地方政府债务生成和治理机制的关键时期,为此,有必要从央地关系角度梳理地方政府债务问题背后的经济学机制。劳动力尚未自由流动和货币已经统一之间的矛盾是导致中国地方政府债务问题的深层次原因。由于劳动力未能充分流动,使得地区间的劳动生产率差异巨大,而货币的统一又使人民币汇率偏离了处于地理劣势且经济欠发达地区的劳动生产率,限制了它们通过货币贬值来增加出口的可能性。于是,借债成为"为发展而融资"的渠道,而对中央事后救助的期望又进一步加剧了地方政府借债的冲动。因此,在长期,中国地方政府债务治理的关键在于推进劳动力的自由流动,实现地区间劳动生产率的趋同,以适应统一货币区的需要,同时,也让人口流出地区摆脱对于过度举债的依赖。

Increasing local government debt in China has triggered the concern over now tne local government debt incur and how to tackle it.This paper analyzes the conflict between in sufficient labor mobility and common currency area,which leads to China＇s local government debt. The former generates big geographical disparities in labor productivity,while the latter reduces the possibility to increase export through depreciation in the less developed areas in China. As a result,borrowing becomes the very channel to finance for local governments. What＇s worse, the expectation of bailout from central government provides more incentives forlocal governments to borrow. Therefore, the key to resolving the issue of local government debt lies in free labor mobility, which in turn makes inter-regional labor productivity converge. Consequently, this could decrease the incentive to borrow for less developed areas.