经济发展、制度安排与地方反腐败力度——基于G省面板数据的分析

Economic Development,Institutional Structure and Local Anti-corruption Efforts: A Panel Data Analysis Based on G Province

地方反腐败力度是影响腐败治理成败的关键因素之一。对G省21个地级市腐败案件立案数与处分数的纵贯分析发现,过去十年中各地方反腐败力度存在着显著差异。采用固定效应模型和随机效应模型分析发现,经济发展水平、地方分权程度和政治周期显著地影响着地方反腐败力度。其中,经济发展与反腐败力度之间呈倒U型关系,在人均GDP为2.4万元左右的时候,反腐败力度最大。地方分权程度越高,反腐败力度越小。与其他年份相比,政府换届年份的反腐败力度会显著降低。

The intensity of local anti - corruption efforts is a key to the success of China＇s anti - corruption cam- paign. Based on the panel data analysis of 21 cities in G Province, this paper finds significant variations in local governments＇ anti - corruption efforts in recent decades. The results of fix - and random - effects analyses show that economic development, local decentralization and political cycle have significant impact on local governments＇ anti -corruption efforts. Economic development had a reverse U statistical relation with local anti - corruption efforts, which were at the peak when per capital GDP reached RMB 24,000 yuan. Local anti - corruption efforts were negatively related to the degree of decentralization. The anti - corruption efforts were sig- nificantly weaker during the years of when a new government assumes office.