信贷资源配置与我国经济发展平稳性

The Credit Resources Allocation and Stability of China's Economic Development

银行信贷扭曲和配置不当会降低经济发展的平稳性。运用省级面板数据,采用全局主成分分析法构建了一个包含产出稳定、物价稳定、就业稳定、资源耗费与生态环境稳定改善的经济发展平稳性综合指数。运用面板门槛模型,测度了银行信贷资源配置差异对我国经济发展平稳性的影响。研究得出:信贷配置扭曲与经济发展平稳性呈负相关关系,银行信贷资源配置差异与经济发展平稳性之间呈"倒U型"关系,即银行信贷资源配置差异程度存在一个合理的水平区间,低于该区间下限时,随着银行信贷资源配置差异程度的增加,经济发展平稳性不断改善;达到这个水平区间时,经济发展平稳性处于最佳状态;超过该区间上限时,经济发展平稳性不断降低。

Bank credit distortions and misallocation reduce the stability of economic development. The article uses provincial panel data, and the global principal component analysis to construct a composite index of stability of China＇s economic development, it contains output stability, price stability, employment stability, consumption of resources and ecological environment steady improvement. The paper uses panel threshold model, measures the impact of differences in resource allocation of bank credit to the stability of economic development. Research findings show that： distortion of credit allocation and stability of economic development are negatively correlated, it was ＂inverted U -shaped＂ relationship between bank credit allocation of resources and stability of economic development, that degree of difference between the allocation of resources in the bank credit has a reasonable level, below this level, as the degree of difference increases, the stability of economic development continue to improve;when reached this level range, the stability of economic development is in the best condition ; when the degree of difference exceeds the upper limit of this range, stability of economic development will continue to decrease.