农业保险与农业面源污染:影响因素及其度量——基于联立方程组模型的情景模拟

Agricultural Insurance and Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution:Influencing Factors and Their Measurement——Scenario Simulation Based on Simultaneous Equations Model

文章基于联立方程组模型的情景模拟方法,运用2005-2012年中国省际面板数据,实证分析了农业保险对中国农业面源污染的影响。研究表明:(1)中国农业保险促进了农业规模发展与农业技术进步,降低了农业种植业比重;农业规模扩大加剧了农业面源污染,而农业种植业比重下降与农业技术进步缓解了农业面源污染。综合来看,农业保险影响农业环境的机制在于,规模效应加剧了农业面源污染,结构效应与技术效应减轻了农业面源污染。(2)我国农业保险对农业环境质量的综合影响,受益地区往往是农业经济较为发达的地区(如华东、东北地区),受损地区往往是农业经济欠发达地区(如华南、西北地区)。(3)农业固定资产投资、农业机械化水平、农业外向程度等因素是影响农业保险环境效应的重要因素。当前,我国正处于农业面源污染防治的关键阶段,政府可以通过将农业保险保费补贴额度与农业生产技术选择相对接,积极引导、鼓励农民采用绿色农业生产技术,从而有效降低农业面源污染,推动中国农业保险向环境友好型的绿色保险转变。

Based on scenario simulation of simultaneous equations model, this paper uses the provincial panel data from 2005 to 2012 in China to empirically analyze the impact of agricultural insurance on agricultural non-point source pollution. It arrives at the conclusions as follows： first- ly, China＇s agricultural insurance promotes the development of agricultural scale and agricultural technology progress, and reduces the proportion of agricultural planting; agricultural scale expan- sion intensifies agricultural non-point source pollution, and the reduction in the proportion of ag- ricultural planting industry and agricultural technology progress have eased agricultural non-point source pollution; as a whole, the mechanism of the effect of agricultural insurance on agricultural environment lies in that the scale effect increases agricultural non-point source pollution, and structure ＆ technology effects reduce agricultural non-point source oollution ; secondlv , as fear the overall impact of agricultural insurance on the quality of agricultural environment, the benefi- ted regions are often more developed areas of agricultural economy （such as East China and Northeast China）, and the damaged areas are often less developed areas of agricultural economy （such as Southern China and Northwest China）; thirdly, agricultural fixed assets investment, the level of agricultural mechanization, agricultural exports and other factors are the important factors that affect the environmental effects of agricultural insurance. At present, China is in the critical stage of agricultural non-point source pollution control. The governments can combine ag- ricultural production technology with agricultural insurance subsidies to actively encourage farm- ers to adopt agricultural cleaner production technology, so as to effectively reduce agricultural non-point source pollution, and promote the transformation of China＇s agricultural insurance to the environment-friendly ~reen insurnnro