中国电力行业CO_2减排潜力及其贡献因素

Factors contributing to CO_2 emission reduction potential of the power sector in China

电力行业低碳转型是中国低碳经济转型进程中关键行业之一,如何科学分析电力行业的碳减排潜力,确定操作性强的低碳转型路线、提出有效的政策措施是中国政府亟待解决的焦点问题之一。考虑终端电力消费、低碳能源发电占比、火力发电结构、火力发电效率、线损率等因素,构建了自底向上的电力行业CO2排放核算模型,在此基础上,利用情景分析方法探索中国电力行业2015和2020年的CO2减排潜力,进一步利用对数平均权重分解法(LMDI,Logarithmic Mean weight Divisia Index method)对电力行业CO2减排影响因素的贡献度做了归因分析。结果显示,相比基准情景,在当前政策情景和低碳政策情景下,电力行业将分别带来27.0亿t和36.9亿t的CO2减排量。低碳能源发电和火力发电效率是未来对CO2减排最重要的两个贡献因素。终端电力消费量一直是促进电力行业CO2排放增长最重要的贡献因素,因此通过电力需求侧管理等手段控制电力消费量对电力行业的低碳发展至关重要。最后结合减排贡献因素分析的结果为中国电力行业低碳发展提出了相应的政策建议。

Reducing carbon emissions from the power sector is of great importance for China in moving towards a low-carbon economy. Key issues include how to scientifically analyze potential for reductions, identifying a feasible transition strategy, and developing effective policies and measures to achieve goals. Many studies have explored future CO2emissions from the power sector, but few have quantitatively analyzed factors associated with CO2 emission reduction potential, and research has thus failed to propose targeted policy solutions. This study was built on a CO2 emissions accounting model with a bottom- up approach. Factors that impact the CO2 emissions, i.e., terminal electricity consumption, low-carbon power production, thermal power efficiency, and line loss rate, were included in the model. The LMDI method was used to measure the weight of the contribution from each factor. Three scenarios, i.e. a Business As Usual （BAU） Scenario, a Current Policy （CP） Scenario, and a Low-carbon （LC） Policy Scenario, were developed to stimulate emission reductions by the sector during the period 2015-2020. The study results reveal that CO2 emissions from China＇s power sector will continue to grow under all three scenarios over the period of 2010 to 2020, with annual growth rates of 10.7% （BAU）, 6.5% （CP） and 4.5% （LC）. As the Current Policy Scenario was based on existing plans and policies for the power sector, we believe that it should be possible to achieve the 2701 Mt CO2 emission reduction forecast under CP. As the Low-carbon Policy Scenario requires more radical policies to be adopted in the power sector, we believe that the forecast 3688 Mt reduction by 2020 （down to only 4720 Mt） is likely to be the upper limit of CO2 emission reductions possible for the sector. By further studying all the factors that contribute to CO2 emission reduction potential, we found that the most influential factor driving the growth of CO2 emissions from the sector until 2020 is terminal electricity consumption. Low-carbon power generation will have growing importance in the period 2011--2020. For example, in the LC Policy Scenario, the contribution of low-carbon power generation to CO2 emission reductions reached 29.7%, exceeding that of thermal power generation efficiency and all other factors, Thermal power generation efficiency will play an important role throughout the evaluated period. However, because the progress of technology may curb gradually with the growth of power generation efficiency, the contribution of this factor will decrease. The contribution made by the thermal power structure will increase owing to the rapid development of gas-fired power generation in the future. Compared to other factors, the line loss rate is not a great contributor to the total CO2 emissions of the sector, but is still of significance that should not be ignored. Finally, policy recommendations are provided based on the results of the study to support government policy making for China＇s power sector.