呼图壁河径流对气候变化的敏感性分析

Analysis on the Sensitivity of Runoff to Climate Change in Hutubi River Basin

为了预测干旱地区径流对气候变化的敏感性,选取天山北坡中段的呼图壁河流域,根据1978—2011年的气象数据和径流数据,建立了径流与气温、降水的多变量时间序列模型,并设置不同的情景方案对径流对气候的敏感性进行了分析。结果表明:呼图壁河径流主要受降水和气温的影响,径流对降水的敏感性比对气温的高。

In order to predict the sensitivity of the runoff to the climate change in arid regions,this paper selected Hutubi River basin,a river in the mid section of the north slope of Tianshan Mountain. Based on the meteorological and runoff data of 1978-2011,its change trend was analyzed and multivariate time series model was established. The paper also set up different scenarios to analyze the sensitivity of the runoff to the climate. The results show that Hutubi River runoff is mainly influenced by rainfall and temperature,but the sensitivity of runoff to the precipitation is much higher than that of the temperature.