河南省1951—2012年降水量的Morlet小波分析

Study on Precipitation Based on Morlet Wavelet in Henan Province During the Period of 1951-2012

利用河南省11个气象站1951—2012年的降水量数据,结合统计检验方法、Morlet小波分析法对降水时序进行了统计特征研究。结果表明:除冬季降水量增长趋势通过置信度0.01的显著性检验外,河南省年降水量及季降水量均呈弱增长趋势;降水量的空间分布上从南到北、从东到西递减,北部、西部及西南部多山地区的CV和CS数值要大于中东部平原地区的;除5 a以下的周期外,河南省年降水量的主、次周期分别为6、20 a,夏季降水量的主、次周期分别为9、22 a,全年和夏季降水量未来均以偏枯为主,年降水量周期主要受夏季降水量周期的影响。

By using the precipitation data of 11 cities in Henan from 1951 to 2012,this paper applied methods of statistical test,Morlet wavelet analysis from the aspect of multi-time scales,space and period to analyze the statistical characteristics of precipitation sequences of Henan Province. The results show that the annual and three-month precipitation intensity show slightly increasing tendency,besides the precipitation in winter has passed the best of confident level of 99%. The precipitation gradually reduces from south to north and from east to west in Henan Province. The values of CVand CSin northern,western and southwestern mountainous regions are greater than that of the middle and east plains. Removing the 5 years,the precipitation sequences of annual and summer are 6 years and 20 years and 9 years and 22 years periods respectively. It has shown that the dry years are the main of annual and summer precipitation in the future. Annual precipitation cycle is mainly controlled by summer precipitation cycle.