明代1425—1643年北京地区干旱灾害与气候事件研究

The research on drought disasters and climate events in Beijing from 1425 to 1643 in Ming Dynasty

通过对明代1425—1643年北京地区历史资料的搜集、整理和数学分析,对该时期北京地区的干旱灾害等级及其成因进行了研究。结果表明:明代1425—1643年北京地区共发生干旱灾害160次,平均每1.37年发生1次;其中共发生轻度旱灾44次,占旱灾总数的27.5%;发生中度旱灾54次,占旱灾总次数的33.75%;发生大旱灾54次,占旱灾总数的33.75%;发生特大旱灾8次,占干旱总数的5%。明代1425—1643年北京地区旱灾变化可分为3个阶段,第1个阶段在1425—1509年,第2个阶段在1510—1579年,第3个阶段在1580—1643年。明代1425—1643年北京地区旱灾的突出特点是发生频繁和等级高,其原因主要是当时气候变干和干旱气候事件频繁出现造成的,指示明代1425—1643年是较为干旱的气候期。根据现代干旱年平均降水量推断,北京地区明代1425—1643年间大旱灾发生年份主要灾区的年均降水量为390 mm左右,特大旱灾发生年份的年均降水量为230 mm左右。初步确定北京地区明代1425—1643年发生过9次干旱气候事件,这些事件给人们的生命和财产带来了巨大损失,引起了社会动荡。

After collecting, interpreting and analyzing the historic material of drought disasters in Beijing from 1425 AD to 1643 AD in Ming Dynasty, this paper covered the grades and reasons of drought disasters in the study area. As the results showed, from 1425 AD to 1643 AD in Ming Dynasty, there were 160 drought disasters which occurred once every 1.37 years in Beijing. In this period, the numbers of the slight, moderate, serious and extremely serious drought disasters were 44, 54, 54, 8, and their frequency were 27.5% , 33.75% , 33.75% , 5% respectively. We can divide this period into three stages. The first stage was from 1425 AD to 1509 AD, the second one was from 1510 AD to 1579 AD, and the third one was from 1580 AD to 1643 AD. The outstanding features of drought disasters in Beijing from 1425 AD to 1643 AD during Ming Dynasty were frequent drought disasters and higher draught grades. The main reasons were drying climate and frequent draught climate events which indicated that Ming Dynasty was a drying period. According to average precipitation of modern times, when the serious drought disasters occurred in Beijing during Ming Dynasty, the annual precipitation was about 390 ram. When the extremely serious drought disasters occurred, the annual precipitation was about 230 ram. There were 9 draught climate events occurred in Beijing from 1425 AD to 1643 AD in Ming Dynasty, which brought great losses to local residents and caused turbulence.