明代济南地区干旱灾害特征与小波分析研究

The research on drought disasters and wavelet analysis in Jinan in Ming Dynasty

本文在对明代济南地区历史资料的搜集、统计和分析基础上，研究了该时期济南地区的干旱灾害等级、阶段特征及各等级灾害周期性等问题。结果表明：明代济南地区干旱灾害共发生81次，平均每3．42年发生一次，其中主要以大旱灾为主，占旱灾总数的58％；其次是轻度旱灾．占旱灾总数的16．0％；中度旱灾的发生频率也较高，占旱灾总数的14．8％；特大旱灾发生频率最小．占旱灾总数的11．1％。明代济南地区旱灾总体呈现增加趋势，并可分为4个阶段。其中第l阶段（1368-1419年）和第3阶段（1560-1609年）为旱灾较少发生期，第2阶段（1420--1559年）和第4阶段（1610-1644年）为旱灾多发期。经小波分析得出，明代济南轻度和中度旱灾存在着4～7yr、12—16yr的短期振荡周期，大旱灾存在着24～25yr左右的中期振荡周期，特大旱灾存在着33yr左右的长期振荡周期。明代济南地区旱灾频发主要是由气候变冷变干引起的年降水量明显减少造成的，厄尔尼诺现象对该区干旱灾害起到了明显的加强作用。

By collecting, reorganizing and analyzing the historical materials about Jinan area in Ming Dynasty, the grade series, stage changes and different grades＇ periodicity of drought disasters have been researched in this study. The statistical results show that, drought disasters in Jinan in Ming Dynasty had 81 times altogether, and occurred averagely one time per 3.42 year. In this period, the occurrence probability of the slight, moderate, serious and extremely serious drought disasters was 16.0%, 14.8%, 58%, and 11.1%, respectively. The frequency of drought disasters was obvious upward with time. The disaster has been divided into four stages. The first stage （from 1368 to 1419） and the third stage （from 1560 to 1609） were frequently-occurring stage of droughts while the second stage （from 1420 to 1559） and the fourth stage （from 1610 to 1644） were less-ocurring stage of droughts. The results of wavelet analysis show that, slight drought and moderate drought in Jinan in Ming Dynasty exists 4 -7 year and 12 16 year cycles, serious drought exists about a 24 - 25 year cycle, extremely serious drought exists a 33 year cycle. The primary reason of Ming＇ s drought disasters of Jinan was that there was much less precipitation in this relatively wet and clod period, and E1 Nifio strengthened the degree of drought disasters.