新疆沙湾夏季最低气温的重建和分析

Reconstruction and analysis of the minimum temperature in summer for the Shawan in the Tianshan Mountains

利用相关、响应面和偏相关等方法分析采自奎屯河流域的沙大王东采点的树轮年表与沙湾气象站的气象资料之间的关系发现，沙大王东的树木年轮生长受当年、上年、再上年的6_8月最低气温和上年7—8月降水量的制约，其中上年6—8月最低气温和上年7—8月降水在树木年轮的生长时存在相互影响的关系。利用沙大王东采点的树轮年表重建了1650-2001年的沙湾夏季最低气温。分析452a的重建气温序列发现，沙湾夏季最低气温冷暖阶段与精河和呼图壁对应较好．存在9个突变年份和2．0—2．4a、60a和75a的周期变化。

According to single correlation, response face and partial correlation screen indicated that the correlation were significant between tree-ring chronologies of Shadawangdong （SDD） site of Kuitun River and the climatic date of Shawan. As a result, growing of the tree rings was influenced by minimum temperature of the same, the last year, the year before last year in summer and precipitation of the last year in July--August. At the same time, temperature and precipitation were restricted each other. Using tree-ring chronologies, the monthly minimum temperature in the recent 452 a was well reconstructed, and the equation reconstructed was stable by crossing-test. The temperature sequences analyzed find out that in the recent 452 a, the temperature reconstructed has 10 warm periods above its mean and 9 cold periods bellow its mean. The monthly minimum temperature series in the recent 452 a from June to August reconstructed in the Shawan, have significant changing periods of 2.0 - 2.4 a, 60 a and 75 a. The abrupt changes of temperature occurred 9 times.